What The Latest Polls Say About Presidential Race In PA

PENNSYLVANIA — Former President Donald Trump has bounced back from Kamala Harris's mid-summer boost and has now taken a small lead in the polls in Pennsylvania and nationally.

Trump now holds a 0.6 percentage point lead over Harris in Pennsylvania, according to the latest aggregate of polls from RealClearPolitics.

That aggregate considers all polling done in the past month. In the past week there have been four polls, and those numbers are more dire for Harris: CBS News and AM/Greatness indicate a statistical tie between the two candidates, while an Atlas Intel poll gives Trump a 3 point advantage and an InsiderAdvantage poll has him up by 1 point.

Related: PA 2024 Election Preview: What To Know

Nationally, Trump leads by 0.4 percentage points.

Polling can be historically misleading, and most polls have a two to four point margin of error. But it's worth noting that both previous Democratic candidates who faced off against Trump in the general election, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020, enjoyed comparatively very large, multi-point leads in the polls heading into election day.

And in both of those past two elections, Trump significantly outperformed his polling numbers. If he does that again in 2024, the election won't be so close, after all, and he'll win easily.

From a polling perspective, the race in Pennsylvania has largely mirrored the national race in its seesawing. Trump had a large lead over the summer as Biden's popularity diminished, but after Harris replaced him on the ticket, she saw a surge that took her all the way through two weeks ago or so. It's only in recent days that the boost from the media blitz surrounding her campaign has seemed to wear off, and Trump has leveled the polls.