How A La Niña Winter Could Affect Rhode Island Home Heating Bills

RHODE ISLAND — Heating costs in Rhode Island and most of the rest of the country should be about the same as last year as lower energy prices mostly offset colder weather associated with a La Niña climate pattern, the government said in a recent 2024-25 winter fuels outlook.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast, heating costs in Rhode Island and the Northeast are expected to be:

• Natural gas: Natural gas customers should pay about the same as they did last year — an average of about $770 for the season. Gas prices have stabilized after a spike two years ago and this year's winter is forecast to include above-normal temperatures, which could still be colder than last year's unusually warm winter with very little snow. U.S. natural gas inventories have generally been more than the previous five-year average for most of the past two years, but more recently inventories are approaching near-normal levels.
• Electricity: Households in the Midwest and Northeast may pay slightly more because of colder weather. A forecast slightly colder winter than last year may increase bills up to 5 percent with an average winter season expense of $1,350 per household.
• Propane: Those who use propane for heat should pay about the same as last year due to a combination of lower wholesale prices and an increase in consumption use because of a more typical winter than last year's warmer season. The average household that uses propane should be expected to pay about $1,650 for the season.
• Heating oil: Heating oil customers should see the biggest break this winter compared to last with higher consumption not enough to offset a sharp drop in prices. While last year's prices were $4.50 per gallon or more, this fall has seen a dramatic price drop to about $3.50 or less across the region. A colder winter than last year could result in more consumption. The average household that uses about 400 gallons of heating oil per winter should expect to pay $1,350 for the season — about a 5 percent drop from last year.

That's assuming the forecast for La Niña winter to develop plays out. An updated winter outlook last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for slightly above normal temperatures for the winter and average snowfall (which would be an increase over last year's snowless winter).

• How Much Snow Can RI Expect This Winter? See New AccuWeather Forecast

While lower prices and colder weather may combine for relatively little change in home heating costs in most of the country, one exception is the Midwest, where last winter was very mild. With a more seasonal winter expected this year, home heating costs could rise between 2 percent and 11 percent, depending on the energy source.

The southern U.S. is another exception. Winter in that part of the country is expected to be mild and heating costs could be lower than last winter, according to the forecast.

The price of crude is a wild card. Rising tensions in the Middle East raise "the possibility of oil supply disruption and future crude oil price increases," the EIA said.