RI On Track For Over 1,000 Virus Deaths By December: Model

CRANSTON — New estimates on the coronavirus pandemic's impact on Rhode Island predict over 1,000 deaths by Dec. 1.

New projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released Thursday estimate the state's death toll from the virus will reach 1,094 by Dec. 1 — an increase of 80 deaths.

As of Friday, Rhode Island has 19,738 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and a total of 1,014 deaths. The IHME analysis, which is funded partly by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, took note of whether and when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans. The model also found that if universal masking was used in Rhode Island, 33 lives would be saved by December.

The model showed that the number of daily, estimated infections could differ by the thousands based on whether universal masking procedures are followed. By Dec. 1 the number of estimated infections each day is projected to hit 208 in Rhode Island — that number drops to 57 with universal masking.

The coronavirus has killed more than 160,000 Americans as of Friday. Researchers say they expect 140,000 more to die from the coronavirus through Dec. 1. But there are ways to prevent some of the infections and deaths, IHME says in its summary, and one of the biggest factors that can start now, is mask wearing.

IHME researchers' updated predictions indicate America's COVID-19 death toll is expected to reach nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1. But if 95 percent of the county's population practiced consistent mask-wearing, about 70,000 lives could be saved, according to the institute's data.

You can view the IHME's full analysis here.