‘Broiling’ Summer Ahead In Rhode Island, Summer Forecasts Predict

RHODE ISLAND — Spring just got started in Rhode Island, and the first of the summer forecasts are already out — and they all predict brutally hot weather for our part of the country.

A three-month outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center calls for above-average temperatures across the country from June through August, with pockets of extreme heat in the desert Southwest and parts of the Northeast.

Areas from southern Mississippi through the Mid-Atlantic could see above normal rainfall, while the Upper Midwest and Northwest could see below normal rainfall. Forecasters think the Great Plains will be especially dry.

In Rhode Island, temperatures are expected to be above normal, with the likelihood of that being around 70 percent. There's also a chance for more rain this summer, though that's not as certain as the high temperatures. There is about a 40 percent chance precipitation is above average this summer.

Government data is used by private companies that issue their own seasonal forecasts. Competing almanac publications have both released their outlooks. The forecasts suggest the potential for long-standing temperature records to fall in blistering heat waves in July and August. They differ on how much rain different parts of the country will receive this coming summer.

The Farmers’ Almanac calls for a "broiling" hot summer with average levels of precipitation in Rhode Island.

The forecast includes predictions for the two major summer holidays — the July 4-7 Fourth of July weekend and the Sept. 1-3 Labor Day Weekend.

In our zone, which also includes the states of Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., expect scattered showers and possible thunderstorms on July 4. During Labor Day weekend, the forecast calls for thunderstorms, but then the weather turning pleasant.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for a hot and dry summer.

Below, see both almanacs’ predictions for the country.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a gradual buildup to record-breaking heat. June temperatures will be near normal in most regions of the country.

Last year saw one of the hottest summers on record, with a nationwide average temperature of 73.8 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2.5 degrees above normal. It was also Earth’s hottest summer since global records began in 1880, surpassing a 2023 record.

This year is shaping up to be just as intense almost everywhere except the northwest and southern Florida, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa could see temperatures as high as 4 degrees above normal, and the Deep South and Southwest could also see significantly hotter temperatures, forecasters said, warning of the potential for long-lasting heat waves.

The publication doesn’t expect extreme rainfall events this summer. Precipitation will be near- or slightly below normal in most of the country, it said, while the driest conditions are expected in Texas, Oklahoma and the Great Plains. The Great Lakes region, New England and southern Florida, Hawaii and southern Alaska all could see higher-than-normal rainfall, according to the forecast.

The Farmers’ Almanac

The Farmers’ Almanac expects that by the time the summer solstice rolls around on June 20, much of the country east of the Atlantic Coast and Florida peninsula could experience unsettled stormy conditions. July is expected to be sweltering almost everywhere, with above-normal temperatures that could break long-standing records. Hurricane season could start on the Florida Gulf Coast in the second week of August, and a similar threat is expected along the Atlantic Seaboard the second week of September.

Rainfall is expected to be near normal for most of the country, including in New England and the Northeast, which have seen abnormally wet summers in recent years.

The exception is the drought-prone West, which is expected to be drier than it usually is, potentially increasing the risk for wildfires, the forecast said. Wetter-than-usual conditions are expected across the Southern Plains and the Gulf Coast through Florida.

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