GOP Seat Lead Shrinks As Biden Approval Ticks Up — CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll

By Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus, Kabir Khanna, CBS Dallas/Fort Worth

August 28, 2022

Republicans head into the fall still in position to gain enough House seats for a majority, but a tumultuous summer has made their advantage appear a little smaller today — with a trend so far pointing toward narrow gains instead of a wave. Our CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Republicans at 226 seats today, down from 230 estimated in July. A majority of 218 is needed to win control.

While Republicans continue to lead with people who prioritize the economy, at least three things are tempering their overall advantage:

1. Abortion rights: it's still on voters' minds, buttressing Democratic support and helping them with women in swing districts.
2. Gas prices: most report prices in their area coming down, and with them, views of Biden's handling the economy are up a bit – part of a slight rebound we see among the Democratic base.
3. The extent to which this election is about anything other than a still-shaky economy, such as:

• Donald Trump — while midterm elections are often referenda on the sitting president, this one is about the former, too. For a majority of voters he's a factor, either to support or oppose him. Democrats are winning voters whose vote is based "a lot" on how they feel about Trump.
• Republican nominees: both women and independents (key voting groups) are more likely to say it's Republicans who've been nominating candidates they'd call extreme – more so than Democrats' nominees.

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