Why Coffee Prices Are Surging — And Why It’s Likely To Get Worse

A coffee crisis is brewing as prices surge to record highs, and it’s likely going to get worse for the two-thirds of American adults who drink at least a cup of coffee every day.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs, including a 50 percent levy on key supplier Brazil, are exacerbating an already volatile situation in the coffee industry. Global coffee prices rose 40 percent last year due to weather-related shortages, and the latest climate forecasts suggests similar challenges in the near future.

Those short crops are reflected in sharp price increases for the nation’s favorite beverage that began earlier this year.

The average cost for a pound of ground coffee was up 41 percent from September 2024 to September 2025, a record high, according to the Labor Department’s latest inflation report. On average, U.S. consumers were paying $9.14 for a pound of coffee, the report said.

They’re paying even more for specialty coffees that rely on specific, high-quality beans from specific regions that can’t be swapped out with generic commodities and fair-trade coffees that reflect the grower’s increased costs.

Nearly all the coffee consumed domestically — 99 percent — is imported, according to the National Coffee Association.

It’s one of those “unavailable natural resources” that Trump said in September could be exempt for some countries with trade agreements. So far, coffee hasn’t won any exemptions — though bipartisan efforts in Congress aim to change that.

Tough Choices In Local Coffee Houses

The cost of a coffee at restaurants and coffee shops has risen by a few pennies over the past year to an average of about $3.54 in September, up from an average of $3.45 a year ago, according to data from Toast, a restaurant management system.

Local coffee houses, the neighborhood gems that enrich the cultural fabric of communities, have more limited options than behemoths like Starbucks and Dunkin’ that have the scale to soften the impact on customers.

Nikki Bravo, the co-owner of Momentum Coffee in Chicago, told The Associated Press that she recently raised prices by about 15 percent for lattes, cappuccinos and other drinks at her four locations.

She told the news service that she’s paying 15 percent more for coffee beans compared to a year ago, and has started roasting more beans in-house to save money. She gets most of her beans from Africa, where production is also threatened by climate change. The land suitable for growing coffee could reduce by half by 2050 due to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and increased pests.

Bravo said she’s also paying more for cups and sleeves, on top of labor costs that went up with Chicago’s minimum wage hike to $16.60 an hour on July 1.

“At some point we just had to pass it along; we couldn’t continue to eat it,” Bravo said.

Craig Batory, who owns a coffee shop in Detroit’s resurgent Chinatown neighborhood, told public radio station WDET that he has had to raise prices 25 percent to 50 percent over the past year due to global supply shortages.

“And that’s not even talking about the tariffs, right?” he said. “I still have inventory from Brazil, but when that runs out, we’ll have to either figure out a different sourcing option or set our prices accordingly, based on the cost of the coffee rising by 40 percent the last year and the 50 percent tariff,” Batory said.

“So you’re looking at potentially a 90 percent increase.”

The Senate Takes Action

Four Republican senators—Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, both of Kentucky — voted with Democrats Thursday on a resolution to block the global tariffs.

The 51-47 vote nullified the national emergency Trump used to implement his sweeping reciprocal duties. The resolution has almost no chance in the House due to a maneuver Republicans engineered earlier this year that strips Congress of the power to disapprove of Trump’s tariffs.

In September, a bipartisan group of U.S. House members introduced the No Coffee Tax Act that would repeal all tariffs on coffee. Its path is uncertain due to a procedural maneuver Republicans used earlier this year to cede control over trade policy to the executive branch.

“We only produce 1 percent of the coffee that Americans consume. It’s one of the best examples of Trump’s blanket tariffs making no economic sense,” said U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat who co-sponsored the bill with Rep. Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican.

Bacon said he became interested in the issue when he saw how much coffee cost at the grocery store. He said he’s also not a fan of tariffs and thinks Congress — not the president — has the power to levy them.

Bacon said he thinks the Trump administration now realizes that putting tariffs on products that the U.S. can’t grow is bad for consumers, and that he’s hopeful the bill has a chance.

“I hope the president and Congress see the positive benefit of removing this tariff on everyday Americans,” he said.

Where Is U.S. Coffee Grown?

Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico both have large-scale commercial operations, and California and Florida both have small-scale, experimental coffee farms, but the climate overall isn’t favorable for coffee growing.

Brazil is the largest supplier of coffee in the United States, with 30 percent of the market. Trump’s 40 percent retaliatory tariff on top of a 10 percent import tax raised the total duty to 50 percent. Brazilian producers have cut coffee exports to the U.S. amid negotiations with American roasters over who will bear the added costs, which is affecting the U.S. supply, UBS reported, according to the Associated Press.

Colombia, which supplies about 20 percent of the U.S. coffee market, is subject to a 10 percent tariff. Saying Colombia’s leftist leader has “allowed drug cartels to flourish,” Trump recently threatened higher tariffs and an end to U.S. aid, sharply escalating tensions with one of the nation’s closest U.S. allies in Latin America.

Vietnam, which supplies 8 percent of the U.S. coffee market, has paid a 20 percent tariff on imports since the summer.

Coffee farmers in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam have been the most affected by climate change, leading to crop losses, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

La Niña Could Make It Worse

In October, the NOAA’s announcement that La Niña conditions had formed raised concerns about the possibility of drought in Brazil, by far the largest coffee supplier with 40 percent of the global market.

The risk to coffee production from climate change has some researchers trying to develop more drought-resistant coffee varieties that can withstand heat and unpredictable rainfall.

Scientists are also promoting the expansion of shade-grown coffee. Yields are lower than with sun-grown crops, but may be less vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Shade-grown coffee offers several environmental advantages, multiple studies have shown. These benefits include a rise in bird populations and diversity, enhanced bird habitats, protection against soil erosion, carbon sequestration, natural pest management, and improved pollination.

The Associated Press contributed reporting.

Editor’s note: This story was updated Friday, Oct. 31, to reflect the Senate’s passage of a resolution nullifying the national emergency President Donald Trump used to implement his sweeping reciprocal duties.

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