COVID-19 Hospitalizations On Rise Again In Virginia, Could Exceed Previous Peaks

VIRGINIA — Positive cases of COVID-19 are surging again across Virginia, similar to how they were rising during the holiday season a year ago, when the first vaccines were being made available across the country.

On Dec. 15, 2020, the first person in the state — a health care worker in Norfolk — received the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine.

A year later, 77.5 percent of adults in Virginia are now fully vaccinated, as of Friday, while 66.8 percent of the entire population is fully vaccinated, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

Despite the relatively high vaccination rates, large numbers of Virginians are still being hospitalized with COVID-19 and dying from the disease. On Wednesday, Virginia passed a grim milestone as the VDH reported more than 15,000 people in the state had died from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. In total, as of Friday, 15,083 Virginians had died from the disease.

Hospitalization of people for treatment of COVID-19 remains on the rise in Virginia. As of Friday, 1,403 patients were hospitalized for treatment of COVID-19 statewide, up 12 percent from a week earlier, but 41.5 percent below the same date last year, a lower percentage due primarily to a large portion of the population being vaccinated.

Delta is expected to remain the dominant COVID-19 variant in Virginia for weeks, if not months, to come. But the omicron variant is expected to begin affecting Virginia at steadily higher rates during the holidays, researchers at the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute said in a COVID-19 update released Friday.

The institute's "omicron scenario" forecasts a quick rise in cases leading to a peak in early March 2022 that would greatly exceed both last winter's peak and the recent delta surge in September, the UVA researchers said.

The new "omicron scenario" is identical to the institute's "adaptive scenario" but adds a 30-percent "immune escape to account for omicron's enhanced ability to cause reinfections," according to the researchers. The "adaptive scenario" takes the current course of the pandemic, including the impact of the delta variant and vaccines, and projects it forward.

"Omicron is showing a propensity to evade immunity provided by natural infection and by unboosted vaccination," the researchers said. "In affected countries, it has spread much faster than previous variants."

According to the omicron scenario model projections, cases may peak almost three times higher than last winter's surge, the worst period of the pandemic. "The model's hospital projections include preliminary estimates of Omicron's reduced severity, yet it shows hospitalizations could exceed the high peaks which pushed Virginia's health systems to the limit last winter," the researchers said.

There is some good news for Virginians, according to the researchers. COVID-19 vaccinations do provide protection from omicron. "While not 100 percent, boosters appear to be effective at preventing infection and severe disease by Omicron," the said.

The omicron variant was first detected in the Northwest region of Virginia on Dec 9. The VDH has reported an additional case in the state's Northern region, according to the VDH dashboard that tracks variants.

Virginia has seen breakthrough cases among fully vaccinated residents. But of the 5.7 million Virginians who are fully vaccinated as of Dec. 11, only 1.3 percent have contracted COVID-19, 0.042 percent have been hospitalized with the disease, and 0.016 have died, according to the VDH.