Hurricane Matthew to Turn North, Mid-Atlantic Impact Possible

MIAMI, FL — After a long hike west, Hurricane Matthew is expected to turn north this weekend and press on through Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas next week, with a potential trek along the U.S. East Coast by next weekend.

Matthew maintained most of its strength as a major Category 4 storm on Saturday evening, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Matthew is anticipated to “remain a powerful hurricane through Monday,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

As forecasters track Matthew’s journey through the Caribbean Sea, forecasters are also watching a second disturbance that has cropped up in the Atlantic Ocean.

At 5 p.m. Saturday, Matthew was drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph. Hurricane warnings had been issued for Jamaica and Haiti, with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides likely.

Matthew, which became the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since 2007’s Felix late Friday night, is expected to turn north at some point Sunday. On its current projected path, Matthew is expected to strike Jamaica as a major hurricane on Monday before moving across Cuba Tuesday.

Some weakening is expected as the storm moves over Jamaica and Cuba, according to the hurricane center. But, will likely restrengthen once Matthew moves into the Bahamas, reaching with sustained winds at 115 mph — a major Category 3 storm.

Just where Matthew will go after Cuba is still a bit of a guessing game. Current projections place the storm heading north to north-west in the Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday. Weather Channel forecasters note we'll know more about Hurricane Matthew's impact on the U.S. after the storm turns north this weekend.

"Even if Matthew stays sufficiently off the East Coast, a threat of dangerous swells, coastal flooding, and beach erosion is likely to be in play along parts of the Eastern Seaboard," according to the Weather Channel forecast.

Meanwhile, a new disturbance has cropped up in the Atlantic. That system is a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave. It was located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles as of Saturday morning.

“Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds,” the hurricane center wrote in its 8 a.m. Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook report. The system is moving northwest at 15 mph. It’s been given only a 20 percent chance of further development over the next five days.

Peak of the Season

Hurricane Matthew’s formation comes at the peak of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Forecasters at the hurricane center say the eight-week period that begins in mid-August and runs through mid-October is a “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” NOAA explained on its website.

The eight-week period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for about 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

Tampa Bay hasn’t been struck by a hurricane in more than 90 years. Even so, it’s had some close calls this year. Most recently, Hurricane Hermine left flooding woes in her wake as she passed by on her way to the Panhandle. Experts say the region's lucky streak isn’t likely to last. It’s not a question of if, but when, forecasters say.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Peak is Now
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Written with Sherri Lonon | Graphics courtesy of NOAA