When Will Omicron Surge Peak In WI? Here's What Health Experts Say

MILWAUKEE, WI — A COVID-19 surge driven by the omicron variant of the coronavirus broke Wisconsin's previous record for cases and has stuffed local hospitals. But it could peak in the U.S. toward the end of January or the beginning of February, according to local health experts.

South Africa data showed a clear omicron surge and downtrend, and the U.S. could see cases go down in late January or early February, said Milwaukee's chief health adviser, Dr. Ben Weston, in a statement.

Parts of the U.S. that were hit earliest, such as the city of Washington, were already starting to see a downtrend.

Since the omicron variant was first detected in early October, it took 60 days for COVID-19 cases to surge and 40 days to fall in South Africa, Weston said. European nations such as Denmark and the United Kingdom appeared to be near a peak as of Tuesday.

"This may be wishful thinking, but if it is the case, they saw a shorter time from first detection to peak — around 41 days each," Weston said.

But the U.S. is large. While one part of the country may hit a peak, others may still see increasing cases, Weston added.

Downtrends in South Africa and the United Kingdom appear to stagger — meaning cases rise and fall — without returning to levels before the fall surge, according to John Hopkins University data.

Data on the omicron variant remained limited because the current surge was in early stages, Weston said. But parts of the country could peak in "coming days," he added. Other parts will take until the end of January.

In any case, Wisconsinites should expect rough weeks ahead, with high caseloads and overwhelmed hospitals.

The omicron wave may last a bit longer in the U.S. than it did in South Africa, Jake Lemieux, the co-lead of the Massachusetts Consortium of of Pathogen Readiness, told The Harvard Gazette. The greatest number of cases will likely occur in the next few weeks of January, and different parts of the country will experience peaks and waves differently, experts added.

The bulk of infections in the U.S. — which were up to millions daily — should occur in mid-January, with a decline in the second half of January, Network Science Institute Director Alessandro Vespignani told News @ Northeastern. Vespignani echoed other experts' predictions that not every state or city will see a peak and decline in cases at the same time.

Wisconsin hospitals still struggled under the burden of COVID-19 cases in the delta and omicron surges. Intensive care unit beds ran out in western Wisconsin, and ICU beds dwindled in other regions. Overwhelming hospitalizations spurred businesses and hospitals to close.

See Also: COVID-19: No ICU Beds In Western WI As Hospitals Near Capacity

Daily COVID-19 cases in Wisconsin reached 12,305 on Monday, according to Wisconsin Department of Health Services data. The omicron variant was first identified in the country in December, and Wisconsin daily cases on Dec. 2 numbered 4,684.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data showed that the omicron variant made up 97.4 percent of new cases in the Midwest, including Wisconsin. Omicron outpaced the delta variant on Dec. 25, according to federal data.

Responding to questions about loosening COVID-19 mitigation and vaccination restrictions, Weston said that many populations, such as young children and older people, remained at risk for illness. "Letting the virus spread would overwhelm health systems," Weston said. "And we all need health systems."

"And even if you don't care about any of that, there is no guarantee the next variant will even care if you have immunity from omicron," he added.

Getting tested after exposure and masking up in public will help control the spread of COVID-19, experts said. Getting vaccinated and a booster shot when eligible were the best tools to fight back against the coronavirus, they added.

In Wisconsin, 58.5 percent of residents have completed a vaccine series, and 62.5 percent of residents have received at least one dose.