Oscars Predictions: Best Actor

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Oscars Predictions: Best Actor

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 9, 2023): The best actor race will surely be a bloodbath, with every new contender dropping at a festival, living up to (or exceeding) expectations. The top six are dominating the buzz department, but there's always room for some more.
We know that Cillian Murphy ("Oppenheimer") and Leonardo DiCaprio ("Killers of the Flower Moon") will be in the mix for noms but we've seen big misses on nomination morning before. Nobody is "locked" until the names are read. Remember Tom Hanks ("Captain Phillips") and Paul Giamatti ("Sideways")?

Speaking of Giamatti, "The Holdovers" is receiving very warm reception from the festival circuit. It could be a movie that lands in multiple categories, and could gain momentum as the days continue in the season.

The strength of "American Fiction" will lie in the Actors Branch. Despite Emmys and Tonys under his belt, Wright has yet to be recognized by the Academy. He has garnered enormous respect over his career, and if he can clinch a prize such as a Golden Globe for lead comedy actor, he'll be well on his way to an inaugural Oscar nod.

There are moments while watching Bradley Cooper's transformation into Leonard Bernstein where you just know you're watching one of the great actors of our time doing what he does best. Four acting noms later (nine overall), isn't it time he received a statuette of his own?

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists' representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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