Oscars Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

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###/a###Emily Blunt - Da'Vine Joy Randolph© Provided by Variety

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 7, 2023): As awards season approaches, Variety shared exclusively Vanessa Kirby's upcoming performance in Ridley Scott's "Napoleon" would be submitted for best supporting actress consideration. It's unknown how the movie will ultimately play with voters and critics. Along with it being one of the last movies to drop, the former best actress nominee of "Pieces of a Woman" (2020), may have an uphill battle ahead of her, no matter how good she might be.

That's mostly due to two women seem leading the charge thus far in this category - Da'Vine Joy Randolph from Alexander Payne's "The Holdovers" and Emily Blunt from Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer."
Blunt, who has been overdue for her first Oscar nom after multiple snubs for "The Devil Wears Prada" (2006), "A Quiet Place" (2018) and "Mary Poppins Returns" (2018), plays Kitty, Oppenheimer's alcoholic wife, who is sufficiently depressed so as to ask a family friend to take their baby for a while. However, during a critical cross-examination scene, Nolan gives Blunt the opportunity to showcase the skill and biting line deliveries she's displayed throughout her career. With a smirk and swag, Blunt may finally be able to snag her first nom for supporting actress, especially in a film that is an across-the-board contender.
In "Holdovers," I was most enamored by Randolph as the grieving cafeteria manager, representing the heart and soul of the movie. The Academy loves a discovery story, and hers is one that stays with you long after the credits end.

Indigenous representation in the Academy has been virtually non-existent in the history of cinema.
There have been four Indigenous women nominated for acting in Oscars history – Lead actress with Merle Oberon for "The Dark Angel" (1935), Keisha Castle-Hughes in "Whale Rider" (2003) and Yalitza Aparicio for "Roma" (2018), and supporting actress with Jocelyne LaGarde for "Hawaii" (1966).
Along with never winning an acting Oscar, an Indigenous actress from the U.S. has never won a SAG or Critics Choice prize or even been nominated by those groups.
With Gladstone's exit from the supporting actress category, this race has blown wide open with many potentials hoping to take her once-occupied frontrunner spot. With "Killers" predicted to be one of the top awards players, we can't count out any of Gladstone's Indigenous co-stars to make a play for acting love, notably Cara Jade Myers, who plays her sister Anna. She was named one of Variety's 10 Actors to Watch.

Read: Variety's Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, with nominations announcement on Jan. 23. The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
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1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers" (Focus Features)
2. Emily Blunt - "Oppenheimer" (Universal Pictures)
3. Julianne Moore - "May December" (Netflix)
4. America Ferra - Barbie" (Warner Bros.)
5. Rosamund Pike - "Saltburn" (Amazon Studios)

Next in Line

1. Jodie Foster – "Nyad" (Netflix)
2. Sandra Hüller - "The Zone of Interest" (A24)
3. Cara Jade Myers – "Killers of the Flower Moon" (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
4. Vanessa Kirby - "Napoleon" (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
5. Penélope Cruz - "Ferrari" (Neon) **

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

1. Juliette Binoche - "The Taste of Things" (IFC Films/Sapan Studios)
2. Leslie Uggams - "American Fiction" (MGM)
3. Erika Alexander - "American Fiction" (MGM)
4. Rachel McAdams - "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret" (Lionsgate)
5. Danielle Brooks – "The Color Purple" (Warner Bros.)
6. Taraji P. Henson – "The Color Purple" (Warner Bros.)
7. Claire Foy – "All of Us Strangers" (Searchlight Pictures)
8. Lily James – "The Iron Claw" (A24)
9. Viola Davis - "Air" (Amazon MGM Studios)
10. Rhea Perlman – "Barbie" (Warner Bros.)
11. Patricia Clarkson – "Monica" (IFC Films)

Also In Contention

1. Niecy Nash-Betts - Origin" (Neon)
2. America-Ferrera-Dumb Money" (Sony Pictures)
3. Issa Rae - "American Fiction" (MGM)
4. Maya Hawke - "Maestro" (Netflix)
5. Scarlett Johansson - "###strong" (Focus Features) **
6. Audra McDonald - Origin" (Neon)
7. Flamin' Hot" (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
8. Patti LuPone - "Beau is Afraid" (A24)
9. Julianne Nicholson - "Dream Scenario" (A24)
10. Florence Pugh - "Oppenheimer" (Universal Pictures)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

• Jodie Comer – "The Bikeriders" (20th Century Studios) **
• Camille Cottin - "A Haunting in Venice" (20th Century Studios)
• Tina Fey - "A Haunting in Venice" (20th Century Studios)
• Emma Laird - "A Haunting in Venice" (20th Century Studios)
• Kelly Reilly - "A Haunting in Venice" (20th Century Studios)
• Michelle Yeoh - "A Haunting in Venice" (20th Century Studios)
• Patti LuPone – "Beau is Afraid" (A24)
• Parker Posey – "Beau is Afraid" (A24)
• Julianne Nicholson - "Dream Scenario" (A24)
• Lily James – "The Iron Claw" (A24)
• Maura Tierney - "The Iron Claw" (A24)
• Moon Seung-ah – "Past Lives" (A24)
• Dagmara Dominczyk – "Priscilla" (A24)
• Hong Chau – "Showing Up" (A24)
• Julianne Moore – "When You Finish Saving the World" (A24)
• Sandra Hüller – "The Zone of Interest" (A24)
• Viola Davis – "Air" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Jurnee Smollett – "The Burial" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Roberta Colindrez - "Cassandro" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Perla De La Rosa - "Cassandro" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Molly Shannon - "A Good Person" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Celeste O'Connor - "A Good Person" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Zoe Lister-Jones - "A Good Person" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Tiffany Haddish - "Landscape with Invisible Hand" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Brooklynn MacKinzie - "Landscape with Invisible Hand" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Sarayu Blue - "A Million Miles Away" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Veronica Falcón - "A Million Miles Away" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Allison Oliver - "Saltburn" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Rosamund Pike – "Saltburn" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Annie Murphy – "Fingernails" (Apple Original Films)
• Janae Collins – Killers of the Flower Moon" (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
• Tantoo Cardinal – "Killers of the Flower Moon" (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
• Lily Gladstone – "Killers of the Flower Moon" (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
• Cara Jade Myers – "Killers of the Flower Moon" (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
• Vanessa Kirby – "Napoleon" (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
• Camille Cottin - "Golda" (Bleecker Street)
• Scarlett Johansson – "Asteroid City" (Focus Features)
• Da'Vine Joy Randolph – "The Holdovers" (Focus Features)
• Patricia Clarkson – "Monica" (IFC Films)
• Juliette Binoche - "The Taste of Things" (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) **
• Annie Gonzalez – "Flamin' Hot" (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
• Kathy Bates – "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret" (Lionsgate)
• Rachel McAdams – "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret" (Lionsgate)
• Stephanie Hsu – "Joy Ride" (Lionsgate)
• Zoe Saldaña - "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" (Marvel Studios)
• Karen Gillan - "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" (Marvel Studios)
• Pom Klementieff - "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" (Marvel Studios)
• Linda Cardellini - "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" (Marvel Studios)
• Teyonah Parris – "The Marvels" (Marvel Studios)
• Issa Rae – "American Fiction" (MGM)
• Tracee Ellis Ross – "American Fiction" (MGM)
• Emily Beecham - "Guy Ritchie's The Covenant" (MGM)
• Tessa Thompson – "Creed III" (MGM)
• Ruby Cruz - - "Bottoms" (MGM/Orion)
• Havana Rose Liu - "Bottoms" (MGM/Orion)
• Kaia Gerber - "Bottoms" (MGM/Orion)
• Courtney Henggeler - "The Boys in the Boat" (MGM)
• Hadley Robinson - "The Boys in the Boat" (MGM)
• Anne Hathaway – "Eileen" (Neon) **
• Isabella Rossellini – "La Chimera" (Neon)
• Jessica Chastain – "Mothers' Instinct" (Neon) **
• Anne Hathaway – "Mothers' Instinct" (Neon) **
• Niecy Nash-Betts - "Origin" (Neon)
• Audra McDonald - "Origin" (Neon)
• Tilda Swinton – "The Killer" (Netflix)
• Myha'la Herrold – "Leave the World Behind" (Netflix)
• Maya Hawke – "Maestro" (Netflix)
• Carey Mulligan – "Maestro" (Netflix) **
• Julianne Moore – "May December" (Netflix)
• Jodie Foster – "Nyad" (Netflix)
• Audra McDonald – "Rustin" (Netflix)
• CCH Pounder – "Rustin" (Netflix)
• Sophia Lillis - "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves" (Paramount Pictures)
• Hayley Atwell - "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One" (Paramount Pictures)
• Rebecca Ferguson - "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One" (Paramount Pictures)
• Vanessa Kirby - "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One" (Paramount Pictures)
• Pom Klementieff - "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One" (Paramount Pictures)
• Ronkẹ Adékoluẹjo - "Chevalier" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Lucy Boynton - "Chevalier" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Minnie Driver - "Chevalier" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Rachel House - "Next Goal Wins" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Kaimana - "Next Goal Wins" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Elisabeth Moss - "Next Goal Wins" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Suzy Bemba - "Poor Things" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Kathryn Hunter – "Poor Things" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Vicki Pepperdine - "Poor Things" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Margaret Qualley – "Poor Things" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Hanna Schygulla - "Poor Things" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Claire Foy – "All of Us Strangers" (Searchlight Pictures)
• America Ferrera – "Dumb Money" (Sony Pictures)
• Shailene Woodley – "Dumb Money" (Sony Pictures)
• Celia Weston – "A Little Prayer" (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Niousha Noor – "The Persian Version" (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Penélope Cruz – "Ferrari" (Neon)
• Emily Blunt – "Oppenheimer" (Universal Pictures)
• Florence Pugh – "Oppenheimer" (Universal Pictures)
• America Ferrera – "Barbie" (Warner Bros.)
• Ariana Greenblatt – "Barbie" (Warner Bros.)
• Kate McKinnon – "Barbie" (Warner Bros.)
• Rhea Perlman – "Barbie" (Warner Bros.)
• Issa Rae – "Barbie" (Warner Bros.)
• Adriana Barraza – "Blue Beetle" (Warner Bros.)
• Belissa Escobedo – "Blue Beetle" (Warner Bros.)
• Susan Sarandon – "Blue Beetle" (Warner Bros.)
• Bruna Marquezine – "Blue Beetle" (Warner Bros.)
• Halle Bailey – "The Color Purple" (Warner Bros.)
• Danielle Brooks – "The Color Purple" (Warner Bros.)
• Taraji P. Henson – "The Color Purple" (Warner Bros.)
• H.E.R. – "The Color Purple" (Warner Bros.)
• Olivia Colman - "Wonka" (Warner Bros.)
• Sally Hawkins - "Wonka" (Warner Bros.)
• Calah Lane - "Wonka" (Warner Bros.)
• Natasha Rothwell - "Wonka" (Warner Bros.)
• Melissa McCarthy – "The Little Mermaid" (Walt Disney Pictures)

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once" (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists' representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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