Snowfall Predictions Now Made for Middletown's Weekend Nor'Easter

Less than 48 hours away from snow-time and uncertainty is still high on how much, and if some places in Connecticut will even see plowable snow.

And what makes the situation even more confounding is that just to the south of Connecticut, a “Blizzard Watch” has already been issued for Long Island.

But meteorologists say 50 miles can make or break it concerning whether you’ll see major snow or just a few inches.

‘A Limited Impact Across CT’

As of Thursday morning this is the latest thinking on this weekend’s Nor’Easter.

“There has substantial change in our overnight computer guidance from what I can ascertain this morning,” Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan wrote on his weather website. “There has been a gentle tick south with the likely location for substantial snow – a small but discernible jog south. While there’s typical noise with some of the normally whacky models our major models are coming into somewhat better agreement with a limited impact across Connecticut.”

Hanrahan said the European models show a 15- to 40-percent chance of a significant snowfall (more than six inches) across CT, from north to south.

“This has decreased from yesterday,” Hanrahan said. “Not shown, are the probabilities for >1″ of snow which range from 40-percent in northern Connecticut to 80% in southern areas.”

What We Know

• Accumulating snow is still a good bet for many CT towns, Hanrahan said
• There’s a rising chance for a total shut-out north of I-84
• Heaviest snow: 3-6 inches of snow in southern CT

“Based on the overnight trends, it certainly possible that we will need to lower our snowfall forecast across the state if trends continue this afternoon,” Hanrahan said.

When will the snow begin?

Earlier this week the snow was expected to fall after midnight on Friday, but now it’s being delayed. The heavier snow won’t start until Saturday afternoon or evening and taper off after midnight and end altogether early Sunday.

The latest National Weather Service storm forecast:

• Friday: Sunny, with a high near 32. Wind chill values between 10 and 20. North wind 6 to 8 mph

• Friday Night: A chance of snow after 3 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%

• Saturday: Snow likely, mainly after 9 a.m. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Windy, with a northeast wind 16 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible

• Saturday Night: Snow. Low around 26. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible

• Sunday: A chance of snow before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%

• Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23

Photo by Marius!!, via flickr creative commons