"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- January 29, 2017

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a nationally-known political reporter and analyst based on the East Coast.

(Jacksonville, Florida) – I was on the road again this week, and was
thinking about how Florida has swung back and forth between Democrats
and Republicans. I also thought more about the House, Senate, and White
House being held by the same party. That doesn’t happen often, and it
can backfire for the party in power. There is a lot to “brunch” on this
week:

“The Great Society” – The 1960s became a dominant era for Democratic
politics in the U.S. Republicans had controlled the House and Senate
through 1954, but then lost both. When President John Kennedy was
elected in 1960 and was succeeded by President Lyndon Johnson, the
Democrats had a stranglehold on power in Washington. They passed
significant legislation such as the Civil Right Act and Voting Rights
Act, but also increased the nation’s entanglement in the Vietnam War.
Still, it was a long era of political dominance in this country and a
lot got done, controversial as some of it was.

“Carter 1976” – In 1976 after eight years of Republicans in the White
House - and the Vietnam War and Watergate scandal - Democrats increased
their majority in the House and Senate, and elected a President in
Jimmy Carter (D-GA). It all went downhill from there. Carter never
embraced “insider” Washington, and offended such power-brokers as House
Speaker Tip O’Neill (D-MA), and Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA). Intraparty
fights ruled the day and the all-Democratic government produced few – if
any – accomplishments. It was so bad that Carter lost in a landslide in
1980 to Ronald Reagan, and the GOP also swept control of the Senate.

“Clinton 1992” – In 1992, Democrat Bill Clinton defeated the
incumbent George H.W. Bush and also brought solid majorities to the
House and Senate. His signature initiative was health care reform, to be
championed by First Lady Hillary Clinton. But many long-time Democrats
in the House and Senate who had jurisdiction over health legislation,
felt their toes were being stepped on. Congress is a series of kingdoms
and fiefdoms where committee chairs and sub-committee chairs wield power
and loyalty that the Clinton’s never perceived. Not only was health
care reform abandoned (it never even got a vote), but Democrats lost
control of both houses of Congress in 1994, for the first time in 40
years.

“Bush 2000” – After the divisive 2000 Presidential election, the U.S.
Senate was split 50-50, but Republicans essentially held control with
Vice President Dick Cheney as the tie-breaking vote. The GOP was able to
pass – with significant Democratic support – the “No Child Left Behind
Act,” education reform legislation. But in late May Senator Jim Jeffords
(R-VT), left his party to become an independent - after the large
Republican tax cut bill – and Democrats took control of the Senate.
Normally that might cause legislative gridlock as the GOP held the
House, but the September 11th attacks gave an impetus to national unity.
Many Democrats wound up supporting a controversial war in Iraq, for
example.

“Obama 2008” – When Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), won the White House
in 2008, his party had already taken control of the House and Senate two
years prior. Although it took just over a year, Democrats finally had
enough votes in both chambers to pass the Affordable Care Act known as
Obamacare. It was a triumphant and historic legislative act nearly forty
years in the making. It shows what a unified party in complete control
of the agenda, can do in Washington. Unfortunately for Democrats, the
law was – and still is – highly controversial. It prompted the GOP
takeover of the House in 2010, the Senate in 2014, and the White House
in 2016. The ACA is now poised for repeal.

“Trump 2016” – In many ways the Affordable Care Act created the
“perfect storm” for the 2016 election. Republicans now control the White
House, the Senate, and the House, with enough votes to undo what the
Democrats created (without a single GOP vote), in 2010. That issue
aside, there could be other issues that sharply divide the Republicans
as we go forward. As we’ve seen, unified government can be more of a curse than a blessing.

“Fair Weather Florida” – While I was in Florida this past week, I
was struck by how influential the Sunshine State is in creating the
above mentioned scenarios. In 1980, the strong win by President Ronald
Reagan helped bring a little-known politico named Paula Hawkins (R-FL),
into a new U.S. Senate majority for Republicans. In 2001, a close
Presidential race in Florida, made the Republican U.S. Senate seat a
wild-card. Democrat Bill Nelson (D-FL) won, leaving the U.S. Senate in a
tie. In 2016, a sudden return to the Senate race by failed White House
candidate Sen. Marco Rubio, (R-FL), helped save his party’s Senate
majority. Florida remains a big deal, for control of the White House and
Congress.

“Why All of this Matters” – Many people expect the Republicans to
just steamroll legislation through Congress and onto President Trump’s
desk for his signature simply because the GOP holds all three seats at
the table. But as we saw with President Carter in 1976 and President
Clinton in 1992, intraparty fights can sink all of that. In fact, Bill
Clinton was far more successful in the first three years after
Republicans seized control of the House and Senate in 1994. Divided
government got a lot of laws passed, until impeachment derailed further
bipartisan cooperation.

How long do you think Republican unity will last? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© 2017, Mark Curtis Media, LLC.

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