More Coastal Floods Expected In NJ By 2030, Reports Say

OCEAN COUNTY, NJ — Many streets in Ocean County’s coastal communities that once only flooded during severe storms are now overwhelmed with water regularly.

High-tide flooding — also known as sunny day flooding — has become more common after years of rising sea levels, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

New reports by the NOAA and NASA found that high-tide flooding will get worse after 2030 due to a combination of rising sea levels and a normal shift in the moon's orbit.

Coastal communities saw twice as many high-tide flooding days between May 2020 and April 2021 than they did 20 years ago, the NOAA report said.

"The number of high tide flood events is now accelerating at 80 percent of NOAA water level stations along the East and Gulf Coasts," the NOAA report said.

By 2030, there are expected to be 7 to 15 days of high tide events and by 2050, 25 to 75 days — 2-½ months of days where high tides are enough to flood streets, according to the report.

Starting in the mid-2030s, a combination of rising sea levels with a lunar cycle will cause coastal cities around the U.S. to begin a decade of dramatic increases in flood events, a NASA study said.

The lunar effect is due to a "wobble" in the moon's orbit that increases high tides for half of its 18.6-year cycle, the NASA report said.

The wobble is a natural occurrence that was first discovered in 1728. However, rising sea levels could amplify the effects of the wobble, according to the report.

With high sea levels pushing all tides higher and the next moon wobble amplifying them, the tides are expected to top flooding thresholds around the country more often, the report said.

"It's the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact," said Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and the lead author of the new study, published this month in Nature Climate Change. "If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can't keep operating with its parking lot under water. People lose their jobs because they can't get to work. Seeping cesspools become a public health issue."

Keep up to date with what's happening in your community by subscribing to your local Patch newsletter here.