Pump Price Relief May Be On The Way In 2023 For The HV

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — In the new year, even the New York metropolitan area may not see gas prices at the pump reach as high as the spike of 2022. In fact, according to a new report from fuel savings platform Gas Buddy, "some relief may be on the way in 2023."

The average nationwide gas price in 2023 will be $3.49, 50 cents cheaper than this year, predicts the 2023 Fuel Outlook report, released Wednesday. That will come with normal seasonal adjustments. Prices will likely climb as the winter wanes, and could reach $4 in the late spring.

However, the East Coast could go higher. The highest daily average for New York City will be $4.50 - $4.95, the analysis predicted.

"The East Coast remains highly susceptible to Russia’s war on Ukraine, as European countries seek out supplies of oil and refined products from elsewhere, putting upward pressure on prices," the report said. "The mid-Atlantic and Northeast, areas that rely heavily on fuel imports due to its low amount of refining capacity and high population, specifically face pressure."

Currently, the average price of gas locally is $3.453 in Dutchess County, $3.305 in Orange, $3.552 in Putnam, $3.559 in Rockland, $3.272 in Ulster and $3.579 in Westchester, according to AAA.

Prices could drop over the rest of the winter as seasonal demand is usually lower, according to GasBuddy. In 2023, the Hudson Valley should expect closer-to-normal seasonal fluctuation, less affected by the war in Ukraine and its impact on world oil supplies, but still sensitive to international troubles like the sabotage of the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea.

Also, the pandemic plus natural disasters including hurricanes and fires lowered refining capacity in the United States for 2021 and 2022, the report pointed out.

"Extreme amounts of volatility remain possible, but should become slightly more muted in the year ahead," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a news release about the report. "I don’t think we’ve ever seen such an amount of volatility as we saw this year, and that will be a trend that likely continues to lead to wider uncertainty over fuel prices going into 2023."

GasBuddy predicts Americans will spend $55 billion less on gas in 2023 — down to $470.8 billion. The average household will spend $2,371 for the year on gasoline, down $277.

GasBuddy’s 2022 forecast, revised in March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saw the lowest margin for error since the company began its forecasts in 2012.

"Americans love to hold onto the myth that politicians are all-powerful and all knowing, but when it comes to gasoline prices, global influences on supply and demand are really the gremlin that determines prices, and politicians who only care about your vote would love you to think they can control everything, but really can’t do much over global fundamentals driving prices down or up," De Haan said.