2022 Midterm Elections: Control Of Congress, Governors, Weed On Ballot

ACROSS AMERICA — Candidates up and down the ballot — from the most local races to choose township trustees and soil commissioners to federal races that will decide control of Congress — are making closing arguments to voters this weekend in the final sprint before Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Control of Congress is at stake, and for President Joe Biden, the ability to move his domestic and social agenda forward in the last two years of his current term.

A final FiveThirtyEight/Ispos Election Tracking poll before Election Day found Americans fall about equally into three camps,“Democrats, Republicans and neither side.”

The midterms are historically a referendum on the sitting president, and it’s not uncommon for them to lose support in Congress. Former President Donald Trump lost 42 seats in the 2018 midterms; former President Barack Obama lost 63 in 2010, and former President Bill Clinton lost 54 in 1994.

Here’s a quick look at what’s on the ballot:

• Control of the U.S. Senate, currently at a 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans, is on the line. The election forecasting site FiveThirtyEight calls it a “dead heat,” saying Republicans’ best chances to pick up seats are in Georgia and Nevada, while Democrats’ best chance to pick up a seat is in Pennsylvania. Other states in play for control of the Senate are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin
• All 435 U.S. House of Representatives seats will be decided in newly redrawn districts. Most election forecasters expect Republicans to take control of the House. Based on an aggregation of polls, RealClear Politics said 174 seats are solidly Democratic, 228 are solidly Republican and 33 are considered tossups.
• Nearly two-thirds of states are electing governors. Currently, Republicans control 28 gubernatorial seats, while Democrats hold 22. Of the 36 midterm gubernatorial races, those in Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon Wisconsin are considered tossups, according to election forecasters. Governors have powerful influence, especially after the Supreme Court sent abortion back to states to decide.
• Weed is on the ballot. Polls show Americans overwhelmingly support marijuana legalization. With proposals on the ballot in Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota the number of states where people can buy small amounts of recreational pot could expand from the current 19 states and the District of Columbia.

As the outcome of key races becomes more uncertain, Democrats deployed Biden and former President Barack Obama to states with tight races and Democratic strongholds to build enthusiasm in elections only one in five voters cares “very much” about, according to the FiveThirtyEight/Ispos poll.

Former President Donald Trump is campaigning, too. He, Biden and Obama are all scheduled to be in Pennsylvania, where control of the U.S. Senate could come down to the outcome of the race between Democrat John Fetterman, whose campaign was set back by a stroke, and his TV celebrity Republican opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz.

With approval ratings that remain underwater, putting Biden on the campaign trail is risky.

“Democrats are clearly on the defensive and that’s bearing out as the campaign comes to a close,” Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, told The Associated Press. “Their chances for gains don’t look realistic, so now you look to what you can preserve.”

Trump opened a string of four rallies Thursday in Iowa, where he was joined by Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, who is seeking his eighth term and whose opponent, Democrat Mike Franken, is polling within 3 percentage points of Grassley. There, he hinted he will “very, very, very, probably” run for president again in 2024.

More than 34 million Americans have already voted in races that underscore deep political and cultural divisions across the country. One example of the political schism:

Confidence in election integrity is at a 20-year low among Republicans, dragged down by false 2020 election claims that led to the Capitol insurrection and continue to hang heavy in the air during the midterm cycle, according to a Gallup poll released Friday.

At the same time, Democrats’ confidence in elections peaked.

Voters also are driven by different things. Inflation is a kitchen-table issue that crosses party lines, but the FiveThirtyEight/Ispos poll sussed out partisan differences among voters.

Those likely to vote Democratic see political extremism, abortion, crime and gun violence, and climate change as top issues, according to the poll. Among likely Republican voters, driving issues are government debt, immigration, crime and gun violence, and election security.

Less than a third of poll respondents said Democrats have earned the right for another two years in control of the government, but just over a quarter said Republicans have made a good case to replace them.

Cybersecurity concerns loom over the midterms, though U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency chief Jen Easterly said there is no current evidence the election infrastructure has been altered to prevent voting or vote counting, compromise ballots or affect voter registration accuracy.

However, in October, Easterly told reporters “the current election threat environment is more complex than it has ever been.”

The spectrum of potential threats is wide: foreign ransomware gangs friendly with the Kremlin, conspiracy-obsessed local election officials, hostile voters bent on sabotage or political provocateurs trying to suppress the vote with dirty tricks or misinformation.

As Election Day approaches, officials are keeping an eye out for global threats — including longstanding efforts originating in Russia, Iran and China to disrupt elections in key battlegrounds with cyber operations — and insider threats.

The domestic threats are a growing concern and could undermine serious strides made to secure voting systems — including migrating to hand-marked paper ballots and introducing reliable audits — since they were declared critical national infrastructure in January 2017.

Also, cybersecurity experts worry, rogue election officials could provide access to voting systems to unauthorized individuals, as happened in Colorado and Georgia. Poll workers or even voters could try to access voter registration databases or equipment, or plant malware to taint election management systems.

The Associated Press contributed reporting.