Spring Is Coming. Here's Your Long-Term Forecast

Story summary:

• The vernal equinox at 5:01 a.m. Thursday, March 20, signals the astronomical start of spring. Meteorological spring began March 1.
• Various forecasts suggest a tug-of-war between winter and spring in the northern half of the U.S., and a shift in “tornado alley” to the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys.
• La Niña, the climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean responsible for cooler-than-average temperatures, remains in play, according to forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Full story:

Spring starts Thursday, March 20, and with the vernal equinox comes the promise of new beginnings and a farewell to the harshness of winter.

The vernal equinox, the switch from astronomical winter to astronomical spring, occurs when the sun, moving from south to north, is directly above Earth’s equator. This year, that happens at 5:01 a.m. EDT Thursday

Meteorological spring started March 1, but winter wasn’t quite finished. And it still may not be.

When Will It Feel Like Spring?

La Niña, a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean responsible for cooler-than-average temperatures, remains in play, but there’s a 66 percent chance it will shift to a more neutral pattern this spring, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

The agency forecasts above-normal temperatures throughout the South, Southeast and East Coast regions this spring, but expects colder-than-normal temperatures in the extreme Northwest. The West Coast and most of the Midwest should expect normal spring temperatures.

AccuWeather meteorologists said the country will be split between warm spring weather and lingering winter chill, with the northern half of the country expected to see a turbulent transition from one season to the next. Snow could persist in the extreme Northwest well into spring.

The tug-of-war between milder spring air and bursts of colder air could lead to some late-season snow in the interior Northeast and Midwest, according to the forecast.

AccuWeather expects the Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley to be the epicenter of destructive storms, with Chicago, St. Louis and Memphis all potentially in the path of powerful tornadoes. Cooler air around the Great Lakes reduces the risk for severe storms across most of the Midwest and Northeast before they become more widespread in May. AccuWeather said.

Meteorologists also saidthunderstorms are likely from the Plains through the Southeast, except for Florida, which could see dry, pleasant spring conditions shift quickly to brutal summer heat and drought. Finally, the start of spring will feel more like summr in areas of the southern U.S., and drought conditions are expected to expand and intensify from Southern California to the southwestern Plains. Spring temperatures in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas could average more than 4 degrees above the historical average.

The Weather Channel’s spring forecast also suggests a temperature split, with the northern half of the country remaining stubbornly cool as the southern half heats up quickly.

Forecasters for that weather company expect shorts and t-shirt weather in much of the South, northward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Central Plains as spring starts.

Meteorologists expect spring to start cooler than normal in parts of the Northeast and Northwest, including Boston, Seattle and Portland, Oregon.

5 Things To Know About The Equinox

1. During the equinox, will we have equal hours of day and night?

No, according to National Geographic, although they’re close. Days of nearly equal daylight and nighttime always fall before the spring equinox and or autumnal equinox — that’s on Monday, Sept. 22, this year — and then it depends on where you are on the planet.

So, when the sun passes over the equator on March 20, the day will be a little longer than the night, no matter where you are.

2. Does the sun rise due east and set due west at the equinox?

Yes, it does, no matter where you are on Earth. If you’re directionally confused, or downright dysfunctional, this is a good time of year to find due east and due west, according to Earthsky.org, which advises: “Just go outside around sunset or sunrise and notice the location of the sun on the horizon with respect to familiar landmarks.”

Your clarity won’t last, though, as the direction of the sun will shift as the season progresses.

3. During the equinox, is it possible to stand in the direct sun and not cast a shadow?

The sun’s new angle during the equinox will change the length of your shadow, but conditions would have to be perfect for a person not to cast a shadow. For example, the person would have to be standing right at the equator when the clock strikes noon to avoid casting a shadow, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac.

4. Will an egg stand on its end at the exact moment spring arrives?

Yes, but no more so on the first day of spring than on any other day, according to “The Bad Astronomer” Philip Plait, who compares egg-standing myth to “an extremely contagious virus.” Plait, an American astronomer, skeptic, writer and popular science blogger, says the reason eggs can be balanced on one end most likely has to do with tiny bumps on the shell on the end that “act like little legs holding the egg up.”

5. Does spring really make people more amorous?

Studies have dismissed the idea that “spring fever” suggests increased amorousness in spring as cultural trope, with some research suggesting that sex hormones peak in the fall. According to the Science of Relationships, sexual drives and mating behaviors follow six-month cycles. So, you’re most likely to feel the urge to go forth and procreate in the fall and winter.