How Much NC Could Influence 2020 Presidential Election

NORTH CAROLINA — The race to 270 electoral votes between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the Nov. 3 presidential election could come down to how folks in North Carolina vote.

An interactive map from the political polling site FiveThirtyEight allows voters to see how the forecast changes based on either a Trump or Biden victory in a particular state.

Less than two weeks before the election, FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 347-191 lead in electoral votes. The forecast is based on the 40,000 simulations FiveThirtyEight runs every time its election forecast is updated.

In North Carolina, If Biden won the state, he would also be very likely — with a 99 in 100 chance — of winning the national election, according to the map. The likely national scenario could still play out even if Trump won in North Carolina, it said. Even with a North Carolina win, Biden would be "slightly favored" to win the election with a 66 in 100 chance.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast map allows users to make their own projections on who will win each state and how their picks could alter the outcome of the race.

“When you choose the winner in one place, our model updates its predictions everywhere else,” FiveThirtyEight states.

Candidates cannot be selected in states in which they have less than a 1.5 percent chance of winning — for example, Trump in New York or Biden in Idaho.

The forecast simulations from FiveThirtyEight showed Biden as having an “87 in 100” chance of winning the election, as of Oct. 26, and Trump having a 12 in 100 shot to be re-elected.

Trump’s path to victory hinges on pulling off victories in Florida and Pennsylvania, according to an Associated Press report.

One scenario has the two tied at 269. If this happens, the newly elected U.S. House of Representatives will choose the president.

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