Marriage on the Edge: The Real Divorce Patterns Hidden in America’s 2025 Data

On the surface, America’s divorce rate looks calm: about 2.4–2.5 divorces per 1,000 people in 2025. But a closer look drawing on a new analysis by Melaniece Davis, CEO at Better Law Divorce Attorneys, plus federal and research-center data shows stark divides by state, gender, and age that reshape the national picture.

The study estimates ~672,500 divorces this year (based on reporting from 45 states and Washington, D.C.), reflecting a long descent from 3.1 per 1,000 in 2015 to 2.3 in 2020, a small rebound to 2.5 in 2021, and then a steady ~2.4 since 2022.

What the Data Shows and Why It Resonates Nationally

The national average suggests stability, but where you live and who files still matter. Nevada remains an outlier on the high end; Louisiana is among the lowest. And across the country, women initiate roughly two-thirds to 69% of divorces, rising to 75% in some states, shaping timelines, custody, and finances in ways that a flat national rate can’t capture.

A Map of Contrasts: High- and Low-Rate States

The Mountain West and South dominate the upper tier of recent state rates (per 1,000 residents). Nevada (3.8), Idaho (3.4), Wyoming (3.4), Oklahoma (3.3), Alaska (3.1), Utah (3.1), Alabama (3.0), Arkansas (3.0), Florida (3.0), Kentucky (2.9). States such as Louisiana, Illinois, and Massachusetts regularly appear on the low end. Trendlines from 2015–2025 generally slope downward, underscoring a new post-pandemic baseline.

Who Files? The Gender Gap Drives the Narrative

Women file for divorce far more often than men, according to 2025 tallies and social-science research: roughly 66%–69% of divorces are initiated by women, with some states reporting rates up to 75%. In high-rate states, women’s per-1,000 divorce rates markedly exceed men’s for example, Nevada (12.8 for women vs. 6.8 for men), Idaho (9.2 vs. 5.2), Wyoming (11.0 vs. 6.0), Oklahoma (9.3 vs. 5.0), and Arkansas (11.9 vs. 6.5). Researchers point to a mix of factors behind the gap, including differing thresholds for marital satisfaction, greater economic independence among women, and evolving expectations around emotional labor and equity within marriage.

Age Curve: When Splits Are Most Likely

Divorce is concentrated in early to mid-adulthood. People 25–39 account for about 60% of divorces, and first divorces typically occur near age 30. While risk generally declines with age, analysts flag a continued rise in “gray divorce” among those 60+, often linked to longer lifespans, later-life independence, and second or third unions.

How Long Do Marriages Last? First, Second, Third

Marital longevity generally declines with each successive union. First marriages last about 8–13 years on average, with roughly 41% ending in divorce. Second marriages tend to be shorter, around 8–10 years on average, and carry a higher risk of failure than first marriages, while third marriages are typically the least stable, averaging about 5–8 years and showing the highest likelihood of early dissolution.
Over the long term, about 60% of first marriages reach the 20-year mark compared with roughly 45% of remarriages, and couples with higher education fare better overall, with around 75% sustaining their marriages for two decades.

Policy and Practice: What Advocates Are Watching

Family-court practitioners and policymakers are watching three pressure points closely, first, hot-spot states where divorce rates remain elevated, indicating a need for targeted counseling, economic supports, and easier access to legal resources, second, the gender initiation gap, which shapes court caseloads, mediation dynamics, and the pace of settlements, and third, the 25–39 age band, where preventive education and early-intervention services are likely to have an outsized impact on outcomes.

Beyond the Numbers: The New Shape of Marriage in America

Divorce in America today is shaped by more than national averages; it reflects a living map of how relationships, gender roles, and expectations evolve. While overall rates have settled at historic lows, state-level contrasts remain sharp, and women continue to lead most filings, especially in early to mid-adulthood. Together, these trends reveal a nation not turning away from marriage, but redefining it. For lawmakers, counselors, and families alike, the challenge now is understanding not just how many marriages end, but what today’s choices say about the future of commitment itself.